Key resultsįuture extreme storms bring increased flooding potential. The team will use that expertise to quantify changes to heavy precipitation on the local scales that are most relevant to water resource managers. In addition, the Center has pioneered techniques for creating highly detailed, physically realistic climate change projections from global climate model output. With a powerful combination of expertise in global and regional climate modeling, the global hydrologic cycle, and regional atmospheric dynamics, the project team is uniquely equipped to analyze atmospheric rivers in global climate model simulations - and importantly, to understand the physical reasons for changes in atmospheric rivers. This is especially true with respect to atmospheric rivers, since global climate models operate at very large spatial scales, and some of the factors contributing to the intensity of precipitation events tend to be localized. But when it comes to evaluating the regional details of climate change, they aren’t always the best tool for the job. Global climate models are the best tools scientists have for simulating future climate, and they provide a wealth of information about climate change on the global scale. An atmospheric river is shown in this image from NASA’s GOES satellite. That understanding starts with answering questions about how climate change will affect the intensity, frequency, and seasonality of atmospheric rivers. In other words, California’s already variable climate may become even more extreme.įor water managers to be able to plan for these changes, we need to better understand how they will play out in California. Instead, it’s currently thought the character of precipitation will probably change, with more intense atmospheric rivers and longer dry spells between them. However, it’s unlikely the biggest change will be in overall amount of precipitation the state gets. Projections from global climate models - the computer simulation tools that inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s scientific assessments - lead us to expect that future precipitation in California will change. The system needs to collect enough water to supply users throughout the long dry season, while keeping space in reservoirs to catch heavy flows before they cause flooding.Ĭlimate change promises to make managing California’s water even more challenging. Each year, water managers perform a tricky balancing act. Because of this, the state’s reservoirs and other water infrastructure serve two purposes: To capture water for later use, and to prevent flooding downstream whenever possible. In California’s Mediterranean climate, the lion’s share of the precipitation that feeds our water supply falls in a short wet season between November and March – and it typically comes in a handful of intense storms. Forming over the Pacific and traveling east (often called the “Pineapple Express” when formed near Hawaii), California’s atmospheric rivers are responsible for most of the state’s heavy rains and mountain snowfall. Specifically, our team is focusing on atmospheric rivers, moisture-laden filaments of air that move across oceans and can produce heavy precipitation when they make landfall. In the Future of Extreme Precipitation in California Project, researchers at the UCLA Center for Climate Science are investigating the effects of climate change on heavy precipitation events in the state.
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